{"id":11360,"date":"2016-09-01T09:53:05","date_gmt":"2016-09-01T07:53:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/?p=11360"},"modified":"2026-03-22T20:14:41","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:14:41","slug":"fatalne-dane-australii-dwie-podwyzki-usa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/fatalne-dane-australii-dwie-podwyzki-usa\/","title":{"rendered":"Fatalne dane z Australii. Dwie podwy\u017cki w USA?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wczoraj pisa\u0142em o ciekawych zagraniach pod k\u0105tem jutrzejszego raportu z rynku pracy USA wspominaj\u0105c mi\u0119dzy innymi o AUDUSD<\/a>. Z kolei w trakcie ostatnich godzin poznali\u015bmy do\u015b\u0107 kiepskie dane z Australii, co tylko powinno pom\u00f3c nied\u017awiedziom na rynku Aussie’go. Niemniej para ro\u015bnie o poranku.<\/p>\n

Wzrosty podyktowane s\u0105 przede wszystkim zaskakuj\u0105co dobrym odczytem PMI dla chi\u0144skiego przemys\u0142u. Z drugiej strony krajowe dane wypad\u0142y naprawd\u0119 kiepsko. Zar\u00f3wno sprzeda\u017c detaliczna, jak i przemys\u0142owy PMI zanotowa\u0142y warto\u015bci poni\u017cej konsensus\u00f3w. W przypadku indeksu nastroju manager\u00f3w otrzymali\u015bmy najwi\u0119kszy spadek w historii z 56,4 do 46,9. Kluczow\u0105 figur\u0105 by\u0142y jednak dane dotycz\u0105ce wydatk\u00f3w kapita\u0142owych w drugim kwartale, kt\u00f3re tak\u017ce nie zdo\u0142a\u0142y spe\u0142ni\u0107 rynkowych oczekiwa\u0144.<\/p>\n

\"Wydatki<\/a>
Wydatki kapita\u0142owe w Australii, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: abs.gov.au<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Jak wida\u0107 na wykresie powy\u017cej trend jest zdecydowanie spadkowy, co nie powinno w d\u0142u\u017cszym terminie mocno sprzyja\u0107 Aussie’mu. R\u00f3wnie\u017c jak rzucimy okiem na poszczeg\u00f3lne szacunki zauwa\u017cymy, i\u017c mamy do czynienia ze zdecydowanie spadkowym trendem.<\/p>\n

\"estymacje<\/a>
Estymacje wydatk\u00f3w kapita\u0142owych w Australii, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: abs.gov.au<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Poza tym warto zwr\u00f3ci\u0107 uwag\u0119 na wczorajszy komentarze Billa Grossa, zarz\u0105dzaj\u0105cego funduszem Janus Capital, kt\u00f3ry rekomenduje FED dwie podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p procentowych do marca przysz\u0142ego roku. Tymczasem rynek nie wycenia tak jastrz\u0119biego pogl\u0105du nawet do ko\u0144ca 2017 roku. Zdaniem Grossa pierwsz\u0105 podwy\u017ck\u0119 powinni\u015bmy ujrze\u0107 ju\u017c w tym miesi\u0105cu.<\/p>\n

Patrz\u0105c za\u015b na prawdopodobie\u0144stwo podwy\u017cek st\u00f3p w USA w tym miesi\u0105cu dostrzec mo\u017cemy pewn\u0105 konsternacj\u0119, kt\u00f3rej nie potrafi\u0142a znacz\u0105co podnie\u015b\u0107 nawet sama Janet Yellen<\/a>, kt\u00f3ra w kompanii innych cz\u0142onk\u00f3w wyda\u0142a do\u015b\u0107 jastrz\u0119bie uwagi w zesz\u0142y pi\u0105tek.<\/p>\n

\"Szanse<\/a>
Szanse na podwy\u017ck\u0119 st\u00f3p we wrze\u015bniu, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Gross powiedzia\u0142, \u017ce FED oraz inne banki centralne s\u0105 uzale\u017cnione od niskich lub nawet ujemnych st\u00f3p procentowych i pora zerwa\u0107 z tym uzale\u017cnieniem, nawet je\u015bli mia\u0142oby to oznacza\u0107 gospodarczy b\u00f3l ju\u017c teraz.<\/p>\n

Z drugiej strony warto w tym miejscu wspomnie\u0107 o wci\u0105\u017c wyp\u0142aszczaj\u0105cej si\u0119 krzywej rentowno\u015bci. Ameryka\u0144skie 2-latki kwotowane by\u0142y wczoraj z rentowno\u015bci\u0105 0,81%. Za\u015b spread z obligacjami 30-letnimi spad\u0142 we wtorek do zaledwie 140pb, co jest najni\u017csz\u0105 warto\u015bci\u0105 od stycznia 2008 roku. Wynika to g\u0142\u00f3wnie z faktu, i\u017c d\u0142ug z relatywnie kr\u00f3tkim terminem zapadalno\u015bci jest bardziej wra\u017cliwy na uwagi FED, st\u0105d jego wzrosty (rentowno\u015bci) s\u0105 wy\u017csze ni\u017c zwy\u017cki na d\u0142ugim ko\u0144cu krzywej. W efekcie tego ca\u0142a krzywa ulega wyp\u0142aszczeniu.<\/p>\n

Z kolei historia pokazuje, \u017ce gdy dochodzimy do odwr\u00f3conej krzywej rentowno\u015bci ryzyko recesji mocno wzrasta. W przesz\u0142o\u015bci ka\u017cda z siedmiu recesji poprzedzona by\u0142a odwr\u00f3con\u0105 krzyw\u0105 rentowno\u015bci zgodnie z danymi oddzia\u0142u FED w Cleveland.<\/p>\n

\"Spread<\/a>
Spread 2-30Y USA, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: marketwatch.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Tymczasem inwestorzy oczekuj\u0105 na jutrzejszy raport z rynku pracy USA, kt\u00f3ry zgodnie z ostatnimi s\u0142owami wiceszefa FED Fischera b\u0119dzie kluczowy do tego, jak cz\u0142onkowie Komitetu ocenia popraw\u0119 w najwi\u0119kszej gospodarce \u015bwiata. Wed\u0142ug mediany prognoz nades\u0142anych do Bloomberga rynek oczekuje warto\u015bci w okolicy 180 tys. Poprzednia warto\u015b\u0107 wynios\u0142a a\u017c 250 tys. Warto w tym miejscu jednak podkre\u015bli\u0107 pewne ryzyka zwi\u0105zane z sierpniowymi odczytami NFP<\/a>. Gross z kolei powiedzia\u0142, \u017ce wzrost co najmniej na poziomie 150 tys. powinien by\u0107 wystarczaj\u0105cy by przekona\u0107 FED do podwy\u017cki we wrze\u015bniu.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wczoraj pisa\u0142em o ciekawych zagraniach pod k\u0105tem jutrzejszego raportu z rynku pracy USA wspominaj\u0105c mi\u0119dzy innymi o AUDUSD. Z kolei w trakcie ostatnich godzin poznali\u015bmy do\u015b\u0107 kiepskie dane z Australii, co tylko powinno pom\u00f3c nied\u017awiedziom na rynku Aussie’go. Niemniej para ro\u015bnie o poranku. Wzrosty podyktowane s\u0105 przede wszystkim zaskakuj\u0105co dobrym odczytem PMI dla chi\u0144skiego przemys\u0142u. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archiwum-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nFatalne dane z Australii. 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