{"id":11509,"date":"2016-09-27T10:46:59","date_gmt":"2016-09-27T08:46:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/?p=11509"},"modified":"2026-03-22T20:14:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:14:39","slug":"deutsche-bank-a-ryzyko-niewyplacalnosci-niemiec","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/deutsche-bank-a-ryzyko-niewyplacalnosci-niemiec\/","title":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank a ryzyko niewyp\u0142acalno\u015bci Niemiec"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wczoraj na rynku ponownie dominowa\u0142 temat Deutsche Banku, kt\u00f3rego problemy w ostatnim czasie spi\u0119trzy\u0142y si\u0119, po tym jak ameryka\u0144ski Departament Sprawiedliwo\u015bci zaproponowa\u0142 du\u017co wy\u017csz\u0105 kar\u0119 za czyny pope\u0142nione w okresie poprzedzaj\u0105cym kryzys finansowy w USA<\/a> przed blisko dziesi\u0119cioma laty.<\/p>\n

Ju\u017c przed kilkoma dniami wspomina\u0142em, \u017ce tego typu doniesienia mog\u0105 odbi\u0107 si\u0119 negatywnie na ca\u0142ym europejskim systemie bankowym. Na poniedzia\u0142kowej sesji akcje niemieckiego banku osi\u0105gn\u0119\u0142y nowe minima, za\u015b najbardziej ryzykowne obligacje mocno traci\u0142y na warto\u015bci (silny wzrost rentowno\u015bci). By\u0142o to efektem doniesie\u0144, i\u017c niemiecki rz\u0105d nie ma zamiaru anga\u017cowa\u0107 si\u0119 w pomoc dla po\u017cyczkodawcy, co nakr\u0119ci\u0142o inwestor\u00f3w do sprzeda\u017cy akcji.<\/p>\n

W ca\u0142ym tym zamieszaniu mamy r\u00f3wnie\u017c w\u0105tek polityczny i nie s\u0105 to bynajmniej wybory prezydenckie w USA. Mowa o zaplanowanych na wrzesie\u0144 2017 wybor\u00f3w powszechnych w Niemczech. Tym samym Merkel znalaz\u0142a si\u0119 nieco w potrzasku. Po ostatniej pora\u017cce w szczeblu miastowym (przegrane wybory w Berlinie) obecnie kanclerz naszych zachodnich s\u0105siad\u00f3w musi jeszcze bardziej wa\u017cy\u0107 s\u0142owa, by zyska\u0107 poparcie. Nawiasem m\u00f3wi\u0105c, za znaczne pogorszenie opinii co do Merkel odpowiadaj\u0105 pope\u0142nione przez ni\u0105 b\u0142\u0119dy w polityce migracyjnej i przyjmowanie zbyt du\u017cej ilo\u015bci uchod\u017ac\u00f3w. Tak wi\u0119c z pewno\u015bci\u0105 ruch ten nie b\u0119dzie \u0142atwy do odwr\u00f3cenia, lecz wyra\u017any sprzeciw dokapitalizowania bank\u00f3w powinien pozytywnie wp\u0142yn\u0105\u0107 na jej wizerunek.<\/p>\n

\"CDS<\/a>
Prawdopodobie\u0144stwo bankructwa dla Deutsche Banku oraz Niemiec, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: Reuters<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Co jednak najbardziej znacz\u0105ce z dzisiejszej analizy to fakt, i\u017c stopie\u0144 uzale\u017cnienia wiarygodno\u015bci niemieckiej gospodarki w oczach inwestor\u00f3w mocno zale\u017cy od poczyna\u0144 Deutsche Banku. Na powy\u017cszym wykresie przedstawione zosta\u0142y dwie linie, obie pokazuj\u0105ce prawdopodobie\u0144stwo bankructwa DB oraz rz\u0105du Niemiec w ci\u0105gu 5 lat. Sk\u0105d wynika tak silna korelacja?<\/p>\n

Wynika to faktu, i\u017c znaczna cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 kredyt\u00f3w konsumpcyjnych udzielonych przez Deutsche Bank (kwota 189 mld \u20ac) w 2015 roku ma ekspozycj\u0119 na Niemcy. Ponadto, prawie po\u0142owa ze 101 tys. pracownik\u00f3w banku zlokalizowana jest w Niemczech, co stanowi oko\u0142o 56% akcjonariuszy banku. Niemniej jednak europejskie prawo utrudnia kwesti\u0119 bezpo\u015bredniej pomocy rz\u0105dowej w celu ratowania krajowych bank\u00f3w, co te\u017c po cz\u0119\u015bci jest pstryczkiem w nos dla w\u0142oskiego premiera Matteo Renzi’ego – tamtejsze banki r\u00f3wnie\u017c cierpi\u0105 na problemy wagi ci\u0119\u017ckiej.<\/p>\n

Wida\u0107 zatem, \u017ce skala problem\u00f3w jest poka\u017ana. Z jednej strony niemieckie w\u0142adze mog\u0105 chcie\u0107 wspiera\u0107 pomoce finansowe dla DB, z pobudek czysto politycznych, ale pod k\u0105tem dbania o w\u0142asne interesy. Z drugiej jednak og\u00f3lnonarodowy sprzeciw wobec rz\u0105d\u00f3w Merkel m\u00f3g\u0142 by si\u0119 tylko zaostrzy\u0107, co definitywnie mog\u0142oby przekre\u015bli\u0107 szanse zwyci\u0119stwo w przysz\u0142orocznych wyborach.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wczoraj na rynku ponownie dominowa\u0142 temat Deutsche Banku, kt\u00f3rego problemy w ostatnim czasie spi\u0119trzy\u0142y si\u0119, po tym jak ameryka\u0144ski Departament Sprawiedliwo\u015bci zaproponowa\u0142 du\u017co wy\u017csz\u0105 kar\u0119 za czyny pope\u0142nione w okresie poprzedzaj\u0105cym kryzys finansowy w USA przed blisko dziesi\u0119cioma laty. Ju\u017c przed kilkoma dniami wspomina\u0142em, \u017ce tego typu doniesienia mog\u0105 odbi\u0107 si\u0119 negatywnie na ca\u0142ym europejskim […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11511,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archiwum-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nDeutsche Bank a ryzyko niewyp\u0142acalno\u015bci Niemiec - InsiderFX | Finanse bez stresu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Wczoraj na rynku ponownie dominowa\u0142 temat Deutsche Banku, kt\u00f3rego problemy w ostatnim czasie spi\u0119trzy\u0142y si\u0119, po tym jak ameryka\u0144ski Departament\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/deutsche-bank-a-ryzyko-niewyplacalnosci-niemiec\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Deutsche Bank a ryzyko niewyp\u0142acalno\u015bci Niemiec - 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