{"id":11729,"date":"2016-11-16T08:34:46","date_gmt":"2016-11-16T07:34:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/?p=11729"},"modified":"2026-03-22T20:14:36","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:14:36","slug":"nadzieja-ponownie-napedza-rope-co-dalej-z-wti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/nadzieja-ponownie-napedza-rope-co-dalej-z-wti\/","title":{"rendered":"Nadzieja ponownie nap\u0119dza rop\u0119. Co dalej z WTI?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Notowania czarnego z\u0142ota odbi\u0142y wczoraj w imponuj\u0105cy spos\u00f3b, pomimo wy\u017cszych zapas\u00f3w ropy wed\u0142ug prywatnych danych API. G\u0142\u00f3wnym czynnikiem prowadz\u0105cym do takiej reakcji by\u0142y doniesienie z… a jak\u017ce, OPEC. Wed\u0142ug ostatnich doniesie\u0144 to Katar, Algieria oraz Wenezuela stoj\u0105 na czele pa\u0144stw chc\u0105cych osi\u0105gn\u0105\u0107 porozumienie podczas najbli\u017cszego posiedzenia kartelu 30 listopada.<\/p>\n

Sprawd\u017a: Na co zwraca\u0107 uwag\u0119 w tym tygodniu na rynku surowcowym? <\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Jakby tego by\u0142o ma\u0142o opublikowane w poniedzia\u0142ek dane CFTC pokaza\u0142y najwi\u0119ksz\u0105 pozycj\u0119 kr\u00f3tk\u0105 netto na ropie WTI od ponad czterech lat. Dzisiejszego popo\u0142udnia poznamy za\u015b prawdopodobnie wy\u017csze dane o zapasach zgodnie z tym, co wczoraj zaprezentowa\u0142 raport API. Warto zaznaczy\u0107, \u017ce obecnie ceny ropy powr\u00f3ci\u0142y ju\u017c do punktu wyj\u015bcia, za jaki uznajemy okres sprzed og\u0142oszenia wst\u0119pnego porozumienia w Algierze<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Cena<\/a>
Cena ropy WTI, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

W ostatnich godzinach ceny ropy nap\u0119dzane s\u0105 zar\u00f3wno przez nadzieje dotycz\u0105ce zamro\u017cenia produkcji, jak i przez proces zamykania pozycji kr\u00f3tkich poprzez otwierania pozycji d\u0142ugich (ang. short covering)<\/em>. Rzecz jasna, \u017ce sfinalizowanie porozumienia jest w interesie samego OPEC (a zw\u0142aszcza Arabii Saudyjskiej)<\/a>, niemniej je\u015bli nadzieje te spali\u0142yby na panewce, w\u00f3wczas ropa mo\u017ce zaliczy\u0107 kolejny silny spadek.<\/p>\n

Niemniej jednak nie nale\u017cy zapomina\u0107, co jest w dalszym ci\u0105gu g\u0142\u00f3wn\u0105 ko\u015bci\u0105 niezgody. Jest nim Irak i ch\u0119\u0107 bycia pomini\u0119tym w ci\u0119ciu wielko\u015bci wydobycia. Irak argumentuje ten fakt prowadzon\u0105 wojn\u0105 z Pa\u0144stwem Islamskim. Poza tym trzeba podkre\u015bli\u0107, \u017ce OPEC ma zupe\u0142nie inne zdanie i wci\u0105\u017c s\u0105dzi, i\u017c Irak powinien obni\u017cy\u0107 produkcj\u0119 (du\u017co rozstrza\u0142). Nale\u017cy r\u00f3wnie\u017c wskaza\u0107 na fakt, i\u017c contango<\/em> (r\u00f3\u017cnica w dostawie terminowej surowca w por\u00f3wnaniu do ceny spot) w ostatnim czasie zw\u0119zi\u0142o si\u0119, co sugeruje, i\u017c rynek jest bardziej sceptyczny, co do mo\u017cliwo\u015bci szybszego zbilansowania si\u0119 popytu z poda\u017c\u0105 (brak wy\u017cszych terminowych cen).<\/p>\n

Zobacz: Temperatura na rynku d\u0142ugu w USA opada. Szansa na tanie zakupy?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Czy zatem ostatnie dzikie odbicie ma podstawy?<\/strong> W mojej ocenie zupe\u0142nie nie. Rynek po raz kolejny skupia si\u0119 na kilka ma\u0142o znacz\u0105cych doniesieniach, kt\u00f3re zyskuj\u0105 na sile z racji wyprzedania ropy w ostatnim czasie. Niemniej jednak od strony fundamentalnej nie otrzymali\u015bmy \u017cadnych twardych danych, kt\u00f3re mog\u0142yby zach\u0119ci\u0107 do kupna surowca. W rezultacie obecna korekta wzrostowa mo\u017ce by\u0107 wykorzystana do szukania pozycji kr\u00f3tkich, wraz ze zbli\u017caniem si\u0119 do posiedzenia kartelu 30 listopada.<\/p>\n

\"oil\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Od strony technicznej mo\u017cna zauwa\u017cy\u0107, \u017ce w ostatnich dniach notowania kontrakt\u00f3w na rop\u0119 WTI wyrysowa\u0142y formacj\u0119 m\u0142otka, kt\u00f3ra sta\u0142a si\u0119 podwalinami do wzrostowej korekty. Z drugiej strony zaznaczy\u0107 nale\u017cy, i\u017c na interwale tygodniowym cena prze\u0142ama\u0142a wyrysowan\u0105 lini\u0119 trendow\u0105, co tak\u017ce mo\u017ce okaza\u0107 si\u0119 nie bez znaczenia. Przed nami bardzo wa\u017cny op\u00f3r, kt\u00f3ry je\u015bli zostanie prze\u0142amany otwiera nam drog\u0119 do okolic 49$ i 52\/52$.<\/p>\n

O ile ruch spekulacyjny mo\u017ce jeszcze nieco wzrosn\u0105\u0107, o tyle nie s\u0105dz\u0119, \u017ce b\u0119dziemy w stanie prze\u0142ama\u0107 51\/52$ i jednocze\u015bnie opu\u015bci\u0107 konsolidacj\u0119 g\u00f3r\u0105. Tak wi\u0119c handel w trendzie bocznym wci\u0105\u017c powinien obowi\u0105zywa\u0107. Osobi\u015bcie s\u0105dz\u0119, \u017ce ryzyka b\u0119d\u0105 skierowane na rozczarowanie zbli\u017caj\u0105c si\u0119 do posiedzenia OPEC. Tym samym ewentualna wi\u0119ksza korekta wzrostowa mo\u017ce by\u0107 ciekaw\u0105 propozycj\u0105 do pozycjonowania si\u0119 przed potencjalnym fiaskiem rozm\u00f3w w Wiedniu ostatniego dnia miesi\u0105ca.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Notowania czarnego z\u0142ota odbi\u0142y wczoraj w imponuj\u0105cy spos\u00f3b, pomimo wy\u017cszych zapas\u00f3w ropy wed\u0142ug prywatnych danych API. G\u0142\u00f3wnym czynnikiem prowadz\u0105cym do takiej reakcji by\u0142y doniesienie z… a jak\u017ce, OPEC. Wed\u0142ug ostatnich doniesie\u0144 to Katar, Algieria oraz Wenezuela stoj\u0105 na czele pa\u0144stw chc\u0105cych osi\u0105gn\u0105\u0107 porozumienie podczas najbli\u017cszego posiedzenia kartelu 30 listopada. Sprawd\u017a: Na co zwraca\u0107 uwag\u0119 w […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10696,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archiwum-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nNadzieja ponownie nap\u0119dza rop\u0119. Co dalej z WTI? - InsiderFX | Finanse bez stresu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Notowania czarnego z\u0142ota odbi\u0142y wczoraj w imponuj\u0105cy spos\u00f3b, pomimo wy\u017cszych zapas\u00f3w ropy wed\u0142ug prywatnych danych API. 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