{"id":11747,"date":"2016-11-23T17:28:26","date_gmt":"2016-11-23T16:28:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/?p=11747"},"modified":"2026-03-22T20:14:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:14:35","slug":"rynek-nieruchomosci-usa-poziomie-2007-roku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/rynek-nieruchomosci-usa-poziomie-2007-roku\/","title":{"rendered":"Rynek nieruchomo\u015bci w USA na poziomie z 2007 roku"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nowe szczyty na Wall Street sta\u0142y si\u0119 faktem, tymczasem dane makro z ameryka\u0144skiego gospodarki tylko nap\u0119dzaj\u0105 ten trend. Chyba ju\u017c nikt nie ma w\u0105tpliwo\u015bci co do grudniowej podwy\u017cki kosztu pieni\u0105dza w USA. Warto doda\u0107, \u017ce rynek wycenia ten ruch ju\u017c w 100%. Dlatego te\u017c nie nale\u017cy oczekiwa\u0107 wi\u0119kszego umocnienia si\u0119 dolara z powodu samego ruchu FED za kilka tygodni. Aczkolwiek kluczowa b\u0119dzie \u015bcie\u017cka i perspektywa podwy\u017cek na kolejny rok.<\/p>\n

Zobacz: Deal przed Wiedniem? Goldman zaczyna wierzy\u0107 w surowce<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Tymczasem wczoraj poznali\u015bmy kolejn\u0105 \u015bwietn\u0105 paczk\u0119 danych z rynku nieruchomo\u015bci USA – sprzeda\u017c dom\u00f3w na rynku wt\u00f3rnym. Figura ta wzros\u0142a 2% do poziomu 5,6 mln. Sprzeda\u017c dom\u00f3w zwi\u0119kszy\u0142a si\u0119 0,5% w uj\u0119ciu rocznym, z kolei mediana ceny wzros\u0142a 6% r\u00f3wnie\u017c w uj\u0119ciu rocznym.<\/p>\n

Lepszego odczytu nale\u017cy upatrywa\u0107 w kilku czynnikach. Po pierwsze stabilne zatrudnienie, kt\u00f3re jest lwi\u0105 cz\u0119\u015bci\u0105 odpowiadaj\u0105c\u0105 za decyzje dotycz\u0105ce zakupu nieruchomo\u015bci. Po drugie wzrost dochod\u00f3w oraz lepsza struktura finans\u00f3w gospodarstw domowych. Czynniki te bez w\u0105tpienia wspieraj\u0105 popyt na rynku wt\u00f3rnym. Z drugiej strony ograniczona poda\u017c na tym rynku wspiera ceny nieruchomo\u015bci.<\/p>\n

Z drugiej strony wi\u0119ksze wzrosty mog\u0105 by\u0107 trudne w po tym jak stopy oprocentowa\u0144 kredyt\u00f3w hipotecznych mocno wzros\u0142y po spekulacjach, i\u017c prezydent elekt Trump b\u0119dzie prowadzi\u0142 pro-inflacyjn\u0105 polityk\u0119. Wy\u017cszy koszt po\u017cyczki mo\u017ce zniech\u0119ci\u0107 kupuj\u0105cych na rynku pierwotnym, kt\u00f3rzy ju\u017c wcze\u015bniej mogli mie\u0107 problemy z kwalifikowaniem si\u0119 do uzyskania po\u017cyczki.<\/p>\n

\"Sprzeda\u017c<\/a>
Sprzeda\u017c nieruchomo\u015bci na rynku wt\u00f3rnym w USA, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Bior\u0105c pod uwag\u0119 skok w koszcie finansowania kredytu hipotecznego mo\u017cna spodziewa\u0107 si\u0119, \u017ce w kolejnych miesi\u0105cach zobaczymy mniejsz\u0105 liczb\u0119 wniosk\u00f3w o kredyty tego rodzaju, co powinno prze\u0142o\u017cy\u0107 si\u0119 tak\u017ce na pewien zast\u00f3j w sprzeda\u017cy. Niemniej jednak por\u00f3wnuj\u0105c sytuacj\u0119 obecn\u0105 z tym, co dzia\u0142o si\u0119 w okresie ba\u0144ki na rynku nieruchomo\u015bci w USA przed prawie 10-oma laty mo\u017cemy wysnu\u0107 jeden wniosek.<\/p>\n

Pobierz: Raport surowcowy \u2013 Pszenica (ponowne odbicie)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ju\u017c na pierwszy rzut oka wida\u0107, \u017ce bia\u0142a linia znajduje si\u0119 zdecydowanie ni\u017cej ni\u017c w latach 2007\/2008. Oznacza to, \u017ce \u015brednie 30-letnie oprocentowanie kredytu hipotecznego znajduje si\u0119 obecnie na zdecydowanie ni\u017cszym poziomie (dzisiejsze dane pokaza\u0142y co prawda wzrost nad 4%, lecz nie zmienia to faktu, \u017ce do pu\u0142ap\u00f3w sprzed dekady jeszcze daleka droga). Tym samym, nawet bior\u0105c pod uwag\u0119 fakt, \u017ce koszty te b\u0119d\u0105 ros\u0142y w miar\u0119 pro-inflacyjnych zamiar\u00f3w Trumpa i podwy\u017cek st\u00f3p przez FED, mo\u017cemy zak\u0142ada\u0107, \u017ce nie ujrzymy tak drastycznego spadku sprzeda\u017cy nieruchomo\u015bci, jaki wyst\u0105pi\u0142 w roku 2007, 2009 czy 2010. Jest to kolejnym argumentem dla Rezerwy Federalnej za podnoszeniem st\u00f3p. Wida\u0107 jasno, \u017ce historycznie poziom ich odbiega znacz\u0105co od \u015bredniej z ostatniej dekady.<\/p>\n

Konkluzj\u0105 jest to, \u017ce ameryka\u0144ski dolar powinien dobrze prosperowa\u0107 w kolejnych miesi\u0105cach, zwa\u017cywszy na dane makro i przestrze\u0144 do podwy\u017cek jak\u0105 ma FED. Z drugiej strony, je\u015bli poprawiaj\u0105ca si\u0119 perspektywa inflacyjna b\u0119dzie trwa\u0142a na ca\u0142ym \u015bwiecie, w\u00f3wczas mo\u017cemy ujrze\u0107 wi\u0119cej ciekawych okazji w grupie walut G10. Aczkolwiek mam w\u0105tpliwo\u015bci, czy Trump b\u0119dzie tak mocny w czynach jak w s\u0142owach, realizuj\u0105c swoje populistyczne plany nakr\u0119caj\u0105ce dynamik\u0119 cen.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nowe szczyty na Wall Street sta\u0142y si\u0119 faktem, tymczasem dane makro z ameryka\u0144skiego gospodarki tylko nap\u0119dzaj\u0105 ten trend. Chyba ju\u017c nikt nie ma w\u0105tpliwo\u015bci co do grudniowej podwy\u017cki kosztu pieni\u0105dza w USA. Warto doda\u0107, \u017ce rynek wycenia ten ruch ju\u017c w 100%. Dlatego te\u017c nie nale\u017cy oczekiwa\u0107 wi\u0119kszego umocnienia si\u0119 dolara z powodu samego ruchu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archiwum-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nRynek nieruchomo\u015bci w USA na poziomie z 2007 roku - InsiderFX | Finanse bez stresu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nowe szczyty na Wall Street sta\u0142y si\u0119 faktem, tymczasem dane makro z ameryka\u0144skiego gospodarki tylko nap\u0119dzaj\u0105 ten trend. 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