{"id":11775,"date":"2016-11-29T08:30:01","date_gmt":"2016-11-29T07:30:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/?p=11775"},"modified":"2026-03-22T20:14:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:14:35","slug":"juz-czas-kupno-zlota","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/juz-czas-kupno-zlota\/","title":{"rendered":"Czy ju\u017c czas na kupno z\u0142ota?"},"content":{"rendered":"

S\u0105dz\u0119, \u017ce tak – zatem temat wyczerpany. Kr\u00f3tkie pytanie, kr\u00f3tka odpowied\u017a. Wracaj\u0105c jednak do tematu, podczas wczorajszej sesji notowania kruszcu zanotowa\u0142y najlepsz\u0105 sesj\u0119 od czterech tygodni w miar\u0119 umiarkowanej korekty na rynku ameryka\u0144skiego dolara. Odbija\u0142y r\u00f3wnie\u017c inne metale jak pallad czy platyna.<\/p>\n

Zobacz: Rynek nie boi si\u0119 Trumpa. Z\u0142oto w opa\u0142ach a minutki FED<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Na poniedzia\u0142kowej sesji indeks dolara mierzony przez agencj\u0119 Bloomberga osun\u0105\u0142 si\u0119 ze swojego 10-letniego maksimum, co korespondowa\u0142o z obni\u017ceniem si\u0119 rentowno\u015bci tamtejszego d\u0142ugu. Taki przebieg spraw sprzyja\u0142 walutom surowcowym, poprzez wzrost cen surowc\u00f3w. Odbi\u0142o mi\u0119dzy innymi z\u0142oto, kt\u00f3re znajduje si\u0119 ju\u017c poni\u017cej poziomu 30 na oscylatorze RSI – wska\u017anik, kt\u00f3ry obrazuje, czy dane aktywa s\u0105 wyprzedane czy wykupione – sugeruj\u0105 pi\u0119trz\u0105c\u0105 si\u0119 presj\u0119 wzrostow\u0105.<\/p>\n

\"gold\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Od strony technicznej dostrzegamy nie tylko wyprzedanie. Ponadto wida\u0107, i\u017c wczorajsza sesja przyczyni\u0142a si\u0119 do pojawienia formacji przypominaj\u0105cej gwiazd\u0119 porann\u0105, co mo\u017ce pom\u00f3c bykom. Poza tym dotarli\u015bmy do wa\u017cnego wsparcia w postaci zniesienia 61,8% zniesienia Fibonacciego, ruchu wzrostowego mierzonego od ko\u0144c\u00f3wki zesz\u0142ego roku. Najbli\u017cszymi celami s\u0105 okolice 1210$ oraz jeszcze powa\u017cniejszy 1250$.<\/p>\n

Sprawd\u017a: Analiza rynku USDJPY. Dobry zwiastun inflacyjny i problem BoJ<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Notowania \u017c\u00f3\u0142tego metalu zosta\u0142y mocno poturbowane z racji nieoczekiwanego zwyci\u0119stwa Trumpa<\/a>, kt\u00f3re z kolei wywar\u0142o prawdziw\u0105 furi\u0119 na rynku d\u0142ugu<\/a>, przyczyniaj\u0105c si\u0119 do skokowego wzrostu rynkowych oczekiwa\u0144 inflacyjnych. Z drugiej jednak strony sugerowa\u0142em, \u017ce ruch ten mo\u017ce by\u0107 wyolbrzymiony, niedopasowany do faktycznej sytuacji w gospodarce. Tak czy inaczej dolar dosta\u0142 \u015bwie\u017cego paliwa do wzrost\u00f3w, gdy\u017c lu\u017aniejsza polityka fiskalna zmusza FED do szybszego podnoszenia st\u00f3p, by nie przestrzeli\u0107 zbyt mocno celu inflacyjnego (oczywi\u015bcie pod warunkiem realizacji mocno populistycznych propozycji nowej g\u0142owy pa\u0144stwa za oceanem).<\/p>\n

\"Realne<\/a>
Realne rentowno\u015bci obligacji 10-letnich, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: InsiderFX<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Jak spojrzymy na wykres mo\u017cemy zauwa\u017cy\u0107, \u017ce obecna przecena z\u0142ota jest nieco przesadzona w por\u00f3wnaniu do tego, gdzie wzros\u0142y realne stopy procentowe (p\u00f3ki co jednak wci\u0105\u017c nie znamy wska\u017anika PCE za pa\u017adziernik oraz wszystkich odczyt\u00f3w za bie\u017c\u0105cy miesi\u0105c). Gdyby w kolejnym miesi\u0105cu okaza\u0142o si\u0119, \u017ce inflacja przyspieszy\u0142a w listopadzie jeszcze bardziej, w\u00f3wczas wzrost realnych st\u00f3p b\u0119dzie jeszcze mniejszy, co potencjalnie powinno pom\u00f3c notowaniom z\u0142ota.<\/p>\n

Z drugiej strony warto podkre\u015bli\u0107, \u017ce w ubieg\u0142ym tygodniu inwestorzy wyprzedawali kruszec za pomoc\u0105 produkt\u00f3w ETF (exchange-traded funds)<\/em> w najwy\u017cszym tempie od trzech lat. Ca\u0142kowita ekspozycja stopnia\u0142a do zesz\u0142ego pi\u0105tku o 39,2 tony do najni\u017cszego pu\u0142apu od czerwca. Niemniej jednak uwa\u017cam, \u017ce efekt ten (podobnie jak pogrom na rynku d\u0142ugu) zosta\u0142y nieco przesadzone. St\u0105d pod tym k\u0105tem dostrzegam obecnie potencja\u0142 wzrostowy na z\u0142ocie, nawet maj\u0105c na uwadze lepsze dane z rynku pracy, jakie zapewne poznamy w najbli\u017cszy pi\u0105tek.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u0105dz\u0119, \u017ce tak – zatem temat wyczerpany. Kr\u00f3tkie pytanie, kr\u00f3tka odpowied\u017a. Wracaj\u0105c jednak do tematu, podczas wczorajszej sesji notowania kruszcu zanotowa\u0142y najlepsz\u0105 sesj\u0119 od czterech tygodni w miar\u0119 umiarkowanej korekty na rynku ameryka\u0144skiego dolara. Odbija\u0142y r\u00f3wnie\u017c inne metale jak pallad czy platyna. Zobacz: Rynek nie boi si\u0119 Trumpa. Z\u0142oto w opa\u0142ach a minutki FED Na […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archiwum-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nCzy ju\u017c czas na kupno z\u0142ota? - InsiderFX | Finanse bez stresu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"S\u0105dz\u0119, \u017ce tak - zatem temat wyczerpany. Kr\u00f3tkie pytanie, kr\u00f3tka odpowied\u017a. 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