{"id":11791,"date":"2016-12-05T09:30:28","date_gmt":"2016-12-05T08:30:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/?p=11791"},"modified":"2026-03-22T20:14:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:14:34","slug":"monitor-rynku-surowcowego-backwardation-na-rynku-ropy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/monitor-rynku-surowcowego-backwardation-na-rynku-ropy\/","title":{"rendered":"Monitor rynku surowcowego – backwardation na rynku ropy?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Poniedzia\u0142kowego poranka wszyscy \u017cyj\u0105 w\u0142oskim referendum, kt\u00f3re cho\u0107 okaza\u0142o si\u0119 zgodne z ostatnimi badaniami sonda\u017cowymi, to wywo\u0142a\u0142o pot\u0119\u017cn\u0105 reakcj\u0119 na globalnym rynku finansowym. Mocno ucierpia\u0142o euro oraz inne waluty emerging markets<\/em>. Przecena na w\u0142oskim d\u0142ugu, tymczasem europejskie kontrakty terminowe sugeruj\u0105 niewielki spadki. Wartym uwagi jest r\u00f3wnie\u017c wzrost ryzyka rynkowego obrazowego zwy\u017ck\u0105 spreadu rentowno\u015bci 10-latek w\u0142oskich i niemieckich.<\/p>\n

Sprawd\u017a: B\u0105d\u017a Insider na rynku walut i surowc\u00f3w. Zdob\u0105d\u017a przewag\u0119!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

O implikacjach w\u0142oskiego referendum przyjdzie jeszcze porozmawia\u0107. Teraz jednak przejd\u017amy stricte<\/em> do rynku surowcowego. Wydarzeniem poprzedniego tygodnia by\u0142o oczywi\u015bcie posiedzenie OPEC w Wiedniu, kt\u00f3re cho\u0107 przynios\u0142o porozumienie, co do ci\u0119cia produkcji, to wci\u0105\u017c rynek pozostaje niepewnym, je\u015bli chodzi o przestrzeganie tego zarz\u0105dzenia. Historia uczy nas, \u017ce by\u0142o z tym r\u00f3\u017cnie<\/a>. To tylko rzuca w w\u0105tpliwo\u015b\u0107 faktyczny wp\u0142yw porozumienia na realny poziom produkcji.<\/p>\n

Z drugiej strony nale\u017cy zwr\u00f3ci\u0107 uwag\u0119 na potencjalnie wa\u017cny aspekt, kt\u00f3ry m\u00f3g\u0142by pom\u00f3c kluczowym krajom kartelu. Potencjalne podniesienie si\u0119 ceny ropy naftowej mog\u0142oby, cho\u0107by w kr\u00f3tkim terminie, powinno skutkowa\u0107 spadkiem og\u00f3lnego poziomu zapas\u00f3w (poprzez ograniczenie produkcji o 1,2 mln brl), co z kolei mog\u0142oby prowadzi\u0107 do zmniejszenia si\u0119 zmienno\u015bci na rynku surowca. Mniejsza zmienno\u015b\u0107 to niew\u0105tpliwie dobra wiadomo\u015b\u0107 dla emitent\u00f3w d\u0142ugu i kraj\u00f3w czerpi\u0105cych zysk z eksportu ropy.<\/p>\n

Zobacz: Dane z Chin wspieraj\u0105 juana. Uwaga na indeks renminbi<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ponadto, kr\u00f3tkoterminowy wzrost (w oczach inwestor\u00f3w) m\u00f3g\u0142by generowa\u0107 sytuacj\u0105 zwanej backwardation<\/em> na krzywej forward<\/em> dla rynku ropy<\/strong>. Jest to moment, kiedy ceny w kontraktach forward<\/em> s\u0105 ni\u017csze o ceny spot. Je\u015bli por\u00f3wnamy to do stanu obecnego, w kt\u00f3rym to cena spot jest ni\u017csza od cen forward<\/em> (tzw. contango)<\/em> mo\u017cemy zauwa\u017cy\u0107, \u017ce aktualnie wy\u017csze ceny zapewniaj\u0105 mo\u017cliwo\u015b\u0107 zabezpieczenia sobie tej\u017ce w przysz\u0142o\u015bci (kupno kontraktu forward)<\/em>. W ten spos\u00f3b producenci ropy maj\u0105 mo\u017cliwo\u015b\u0107 ci\u0105g\u0142ego hedgowania<\/em> sprzedawanej ropy w przysz\u0142o\u015bci. To z kolei wci\u0105\u017c utrzymuje ch\u0119\u0107 i zdolno\u015b\u0107 produkcyjn\u0105 na wysokim poziomie. Doprowadzenie do sytuacji backwardation<\/em> skutkowa\u0142oby, \u017ce producenci straciliby tak\u0105 mo\u017cliwo\u015b\u0107 (cena spot jest wy\u017csza od forward)<\/em>. Tym samym ch\u0119\u0107 do zwi\u0119kszania b\u0105d\u017a utrzymywania produkcji na sta\u0142ym poziomie z pewno\u015bci\u0105 os\u0142ab\u0142aby.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Krzywa<\/a>
Krzywa forward dla ropy Brent na 2 grudnia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Oczywi\u015bcie czynnik ten m\u00f3g\u0142by okaza\u0107 si\u0119 kr\u00f3tkotrwa\u0142y, gdy\u017c wraz z rosn\u0105c\u0105 cen\u0105 ropy produkcja za oceanem powinna ruszy\u0107 z kopyta, prowadz\u0105c do ponownego wzrostu zapas\u00f3w i powrotu do sytuacji contango<\/em>, czyli normalnego stanu, gdzie cena forward <\/em>jest wy\u017csza od spot (wynika to faktu tego, \u017ce towar – w tym wypadku ropa – musi by\u0107 magazynowany, st\u0105d koszty te powinny zwyczajowo zwi\u0119ksza\u0107 cen\u0119 w kontrakcie forward). <\/em>Niemniej wszystko to zale\u017cy od przestrzegania ca\u0142ego porozumienia przez kraje, kt\u00f3re zobowi\u0105za\u0142y si\u0119 do tego w ubieg\u0142ym tygodniu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Je\u015bli chodzi o rynek z\u0142ota, to dotarli\u015bmy do wa\u017cnego wsparcia w postaci rejonu 1175$. Nie ma co ukrywa\u0107 i zaciemnia\u0107 obrazu, aktualnie cena z\u0142ota kierowana jest niemal\u017ce wy\u0142\u0105cznie przez to, co dzieje si\u0119 z dolarem i oczekiwaniami co do polityki monetarnej FED w przysz\u0142o\u015bci. Z drugiej strony wspomnie\u0107 te\u017c nale\u017cy o realnych rentowno\u015bciach obligacji<\/a>, kt\u00f3rego paradoksalnie mog\u0105 wspiera\u0107 cen\u0119 z\u0142ota, nawet przy uwzgl\u0119dnieniu umiarkowanych podwy\u017cek st\u00f3p procentowych.<\/p>\n

\"\u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o:<\/a>
\u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: InsiderFX<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Na surowcach rolnych dzieje si\u0119 niewiele w ostatnim czasie, cho\u0107 wci\u0105\u017c czu\u0107 spadkow\u0105 presj\u0119. W najbli\u017cszym tygodniu poznamy raport WASDE – najwa\u017cniejsz\u0105 figur\u0119 dla rynku zb\u00f3\u017c w ca\u0142ym miesi\u0105cu. Pr\u00f3cz tego dla rynku mleka mamy kolejn\u0105 aukcj\u0119 mleka (przedostatnia w tym roku), co mo\u017ce wywo\u0142a\u0107 zmienno\u015b\u0107 na rynku NZDUSD. Je\u015bli chodzi o rop\u0119 to rynek obecnie b\u0119dzie z pewno\u015bci\u0105 skupiony na implementacji porozumienia z Wiednia, kt\u00f3re nomen omen ma by\u0107 sfinalizowane 10 grudnia w… Wiedniu, a jak\u017ce.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Poniedzia\u0142kowego poranka wszyscy \u017cyj\u0105 w\u0142oskim referendum, kt\u00f3re cho\u0107 okaza\u0142o si\u0119 zgodne z ostatnimi badaniami sonda\u017cowymi, to wywo\u0142a\u0142o pot\u0119\u017cn\u0105 reakcj\u0119 na globalnym rynku finansowym. Mocno ucierpia\u0142o euro oraz inne waluty emerging markets. Przecena na w\u0142oskim d\u0142ugu, tymczasem europejskie kontrakty terminowe sugeruj\u0105 niewielki spadki. Wartym uwagi jest r\u00f3wnie\u017c wzrost ryzyka rynkowego obrazowego zwy\u017ck\u0105 spreadu rentowno\u015bci 10-latek w\u0142oskich […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10056,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archiwum-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nMonitor rynku surowcowego - backwardation na rynku ropy? - InsiderFX | Finanse bez stresu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Poniedzia\u0142kowego poranka wszyscy \u017cyj\u0105 w\u0142oskim referendum, kt\u00f3re cho\u0107 okaza\u0142o si\u0119 zgodne z ostatnimi badaniami sonda\u017cowymi, to wywo\u0142a\u0142o pot\u0119\u017cn\u0105 reakcj\u0119 na\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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