{"id":12242,"date":"2017-01-25T09:05:36","date_gmt":"2017-01-25T08:05:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/?p=12242"},"modified":"2026-03-22T20:14:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:14:30","slug":"usdjpy-ponownie-ponizej-100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/usdjpy-ponownie-ponizej-100\/","title":{"rendered":"USDJPY ponownie poni\u017cej 100?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Notowania USDJPY mog\u0105 spa\u015b\u0107 nawet poni\u017cej 100 jeszcze w tym roku na fali oczekiwa\u0144 polityki gospodarczej Trumpa, kt\u00f3ra mo\u017ce zawie\u015b\u0107, je\u015bli prezydent USA nie zdo\u0142a uzyska\u0107 obiecanego wzrostu gospodarczego – twierdzi Eisuke Sakakibara, by\u0142y g\u0142\u00f3wny urz\u0119dnik walutowy w japo\u0144skim ministerstwie finans\u00f3w.<\/p>\n

Jego zdaniem dolar jest ju\u017c bliski szczytu. Trend s\u0142abszej waluty ameryka\u0144skiej oraz silniejszej japo\u0144skiej ma dalej post\u0119powa\u0107. „Mr Yen” (pseudonim pochodzi z lat 90, kiedy to jego s\u0142owa by\u0142y na tyle zauwa\u017cane, i\u017c skutecznie sterowa\u0142y kursem jena) uwa\u017ca, \u017ce 4-procentowy wzrost obiecany przez Trumpa jest nierealny. Bardziej mo\u017cliwym scenariuszem ma by\u0107 dynamika wzrostu mi\u0119dzy 2 a 2,5%.<\/p>\n

Zobacz: Co m\u00f3wi zmiana terminowej krzywej ropy? \u2013 rozmowa w Rn\u017b<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

By\u0142y pracownik MF Japonii prognozuje poziom 105-110 na USDJPY, a na prze\u0142omie roku mo\u017cemy nawet prze\u0142ama\u0107 100. Warto zauwa\u017cy\u0107, \u017ce dolar os\u0142abi\u0142 si\u0119 wzgl\u0119dem jena w tym roku ju\u017c o blisko 5%. Do tej pory Trump nie ujawni\u0142 szczeg\u00f3\u0142\u00f3w znacz\u0105cych ci\u0119\u0107 podatk\u00f3w oraz infrastrukturalnych wydatk\u00f3w przez niego obiecanych. Do tej pory wycofa\u0142 on jedynie USA z TPP (umowa o wolnym handlu transatlantyckim).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Notowania USDJPY, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nale\u017cy przypomnie\u0107, \u017ce w ostatnich dniach zar\u00f3wno sam Trump, jak i nominowany przez niego Sekretarz Skarbu Steven Mnuchin ostrzegali przez zbyt silnym dolarem. W ich opinii nadmierna si\u0142a USD mo\u017ce mie\u0107 negatywne, kr\u00f3tkoterminowe efekty na gospodark\u0119.<\/p>\n

Zdaniem Sakakibary administracja Trumpa ewidentnie chce s\u0142abszego dolara w celu wsparcia eksportu i zatrudnienia. Z drugiej strony zbyt s\u0142aba waluta te\u017c mo\u017ce by\u0107 problemem, z tego powodu obydwaj (Trump i Mnuchin) powtarzali wielokrotnie o konieczno\u015bci wsparcia dla polityki silnego dolara.<\/p>\n

Czytaj tak\u017ce: Kiedy powr\u00f3ci indyjski popyt na z\u0142oto?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

„Mr Yen” nie s\u0105dzi r\u00f3wnie\u017c, \u017ce ameryka\u0144ska gospodarka b\u0119dzie zdolna znie\u015b\u0107 wi\u0119cej ni\u017c dwie podwy\u017cki po 25pb w tym roku. Jest to pogl\u0105d znacznie ni\u017cszy ni\u017c rynkowa wycena, kt\u00f3ra daje oko\u0142o 30% szans na 3 lub nawet wi\u0119cej podwy\u017cek. Poza tym popyt na jena wynika\u0107 ma w jego opinii z \u015brodowiska ryzyka wywo\u0142anego przez sam\u0105 polityk\u0119 Trumpa i fal\u0119 populizmu widoczn\u0105 w krajach rozwini\u0119tych Europy (wybory).<\/p>\n

Trzeba doda\u0107, \u017ce Sakakibara trafnie przewidzia\u0142 spadek USDJPY w zesz\u0142ym roku do 100. Nie uda\u0142o mu si\u0119 jednak wyestymowa\u0107 spadku par do 90 po ewentualnym zwyci\u0119stwie Trumpa w wyborach. Z drugiej strony jako jeden z nielicznych przewidywa\u0142 jego zwyci\u0119stwo.<\/p>\n

Sprawd\u017a: Perspektywa PLN w obliczu aktualnej sytuacji makro<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Na koniec zasugerowa\u0142 on, \u017ce nie nale\u017cy spodziewa\u0107 si\u0119 interwencji na rynku walutowym na jenie do czasu, a\u017c USDJPY nie zbli\u017cy si\u0119 do 95. W jego opinii Japonia nie otrzyma pozwolenia od USA na interwencj\u0119, je\u015bli para prze\u0142amie tylko poziom 100.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Na ten moment jednak nie wida\u0107 wi\u0119kszej presji spadkowej na USDJPY patrz\u0105c na to, co dzieje si\u0119 na rynku obligacji USA (bior\u0105c pod uwag\u0119 niemal\u017ce zerow\u0105 rentowno\u015b\u0107 dla papier\u00f3w japo\u0144skich spread niemal\u017ce jest to\u017csamy z rentowno\u015bci\u0105 samych Treasuries). Niemniej pojawienie si\u0119 wi\u0119kszego popyt na ameryka\u0144ski d\u0142ug (presja na spadek rentowno\u015bci) powinno przyczyni\u0107 si\u0119 do spadk\u00f3w USDJPY, o czym warto pami\u0119ta\u0107.<\/p>\n

Moim bazowym scenariuszem jest wzrost rentowno\u015bci w najbli\u017cszych miesi\u0105cach, przynajmniej do czasu, kiedy plany Trumpa dotycz\u0105ce przede wszystkim zmian w podatkach nie stan\u0105 si\u0119 klarowne, mog\u0105c szacowa\u0107 ich wp\u0142yw na wycen\u0119 samego dolara jak i innych aktyw\u00f3w. Tym samym na ten moment spodziewam si\u0119, \u017ce obecna korekta na USDJPY jest ciekawa pod k\u0105tem kupna, kt\u00f3rego wed\u0142ug mnie mo\u017cna szuka\u0107 w okolicy 110\/111.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Notowania USDJPY mog\u0105 spa\u015b\u0107 nawet poni\u017cej 100 jeszcze w tym roku na fali oczekiwa\u0144 polityki gospodarczej Trumpa, kt\u00f3ra mo\u017ce zawie\u015b\u0107, je\u015bli prezydent USA nie zdo\u0142a uzyska\u0107 obiecanego wzrostu gospodarczego – twierdzi Eisuke Sakakibara, by\u0142y g\u0142\u00f3wny urz\u0119dnik walutowy w japo\u0144skim ministerstwie finans\u00f3w. Jego zdaniem dolar jest ju\u017c bliski szczytu. Trend s\u0142abszej waluty ameryka\u0144skiej oraz silniejszej japo\u0144skiej […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10397,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archiwum-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nUSDJPY ponownie poni\u017cej 100? - InsiderFX | Finanse bez stresu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Notowania USDJPY mog\u0105 spa\u015b\u0107 nawet poni\u017cej 100 jeszcze w tym roku na fali oczekiwa\u0144 polityki gospodarczej Trumpa, kt\u00f3ra mo\u017ce zawie\u015b\u0107, je\u015bli prezydent USA\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/usdjpy-ponownie-ponizej-100\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"USDJPY ponownie poni\u017cej 100? 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