{"id":12739,"date":"2017-03-22T08:49:46","date_gmt":"2017-03-22T07:49:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/?p=12739"},"modified":"2026-03-22T20:14:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:14:21","slug":"gleboka-moze-byc-korekta-sp500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/gleboka-moze-byc-korekta-sp500\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak g\u0142\u0119boka mo\u017ce by\u0107 korekta na SP500?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Just in time<\/em> – tak kr\u00f3tko mo\u017cna podsumowa\u0107 moj\u0105 wczorajsz\u0105 wypowied\u017a w programie „Rynki na \u017bywo”<\/a>, kt\u00f3ra dotyczy\u0142a mi\u0119dzy innymi rosn\u0105cego ryzyka wyst\u0105pienia tzw. tail risk<\/em> na SP500. Jak si\u0119 okaza\u0142o d\u0142ugo czeka\u0107 nie musieli\u015bmy.<\/p>\n

Cho\u0107 pe\u0142nego tail risk<\/em> nie ujrzeli\u015bmy (tj. nie odnotowali\u015bmy dziennej stopy zwrotu odbiegaj\u0105cej powy\u017cej dw\u00f3ch odchyle\u0144 standardowych) to przecena rz\u0119du -1,24% r\u00f3wnie\u017c musimy robi\u0107 wra\u017cenie, zw\u0142aszcza, \u017ce zmienno\u015b\u0107 w ostatnim czasie nie powala\u0142a.<\/p>\n

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Licz\u0105c odchylenie standardowe dla dziennych st\u00f3p zwrotu SP500 od pocz\u0105tku 2016 roku otrzymujemy warto\u015b\u0107 w okolicy 0,8%. Zatem by otrzyma\u0107 pe\u0142ne tail risk<\/em> musieliby\u015bmy ujrze\u0107 spadek o oko\u0142o 1,6%. Tak si\u0119 z\u0142o\u017cy\u0142o, \u017ce przedwczorajsza warto\u015b\u0107 indeksu sko\u015bno\u015bci dla SP500 by\u0142a wy\u017csza od tej widzianej podczas referendum ws. Brexitu.<\/p>\n

Indeks CBOE Skew Index budowany jest poprzez por\u00f3wnanie popytu na opcje PUT out-of-the-money<\/em> z opcjami CALL r\u00f3wnie\u017c out-of-the-money<\/em>. rozk\u0142ady st\u00f3p zwrotu z instrument\u00f3w finansowych prawdopodobnie nie maj\u0105 rozk\u0142adu normalnego, st\u0105d wyst\u0119powanie ryzyka grubych ogon\u00f3w. <\/a>Wy\u017csza warto\u015b\u0107 oznacza postrzeganie przez inwestor\u00f3w ryzyka odchylenia dziennej stopy zwrotu o ponad 2 odchylenia standardowe, czyli powy\u017cej przeci\u0119tnej warto\u015bci. Do\u015b\u0107 doda\u0107, \u017ce w rozk\u0142adzie normalnym takiej skali odchylenia otrzymujemy \u015brednio w zaledwie 5% przypadk\u00f3w, cho\u0107 jak wiadomo .<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Indeks CBOE Skew Index oraz VIX na SP500, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Zatem ju\u017c wczoraj mogli\u015bmy w\u0142\u0105czy\u0107 lampk\u0119 ostrzegawcz\u0105, \u017ce ryzyko wi\u0119kszego spadku na SP500 jest ponadprzeci\u0119tne i nawet wy\u017csze ni\u017c te odnotowane w czerwcu 2016, czy te\u017c w czasie wybor\u00f3w prezydenckich w USA.<\/p>\n

Z drugiej strony indeks VIX w dalszym ci\u0105gu pozostawa\u0142 na niskich poziomach. Niemniej jednak, jak wskazuj\u0105 wyliczenia Bloomberga, je\u015bli dywergencja mi\u0119dzy dwoma wska\u017anikami jest na tak wysokich poziomach, w\u00f3wczas indeks VIX ro\u015bnie najcz\u0119\u015bciej w kolejnym miesi\u0105cu a\u017c o 65%. To oczywi\u015bcie implikuje wy\u017csz\u0105, potencjaln\u0105 zmienno\u015b\u0107 zrealizowan\u0105 na SP500.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
CBOE Skew Index, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: CBOE, InsiderFX<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Generalnie indeks powy\u017cej 150 punkt\u00f3w postrzegany jest jako wysokie ryzyko wyst\u0105pienia tail risk.<\/em> Cho\u0107 z drugiej strony nale\u017cy zauwa\u017cy\u0107, \u017ce inwestorzy zmieniaj\u0105 swoje postrzeganie i historycznie trend na tym indeksie jest wzrostowy co sugeruje, wzgl\u0119dnie wy\u017cszy popyt na opcje PUT w relacji do CALL. Mo\u017ce by\u0107 to oczywi\u015bcie efektem trendy byka na Wall Street. Wi\u0119cej na ten temat m\u00f3wi\u0142em przy okazji ostatniego nagrania dotycz\u0105cego rynku opcji.<\/p>\n

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Jak mo\u017cemy zauwa\u017cy\u0107 na wykresie powy\u017cej, wczoraj indeks sko\u015bno\u015bci wyra\u017anie spad\u0142, co by\u0142o naturalnym zachowaniem po zrealizowaniu si\u0119 wi\u0119kszego spadku na SP500 (cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 opcji sprzeda\u017cy zosta\u0142a wykonana – opcje ameryka\u0144skie w przeciwie\u0144stwie do waniliowych opcji europejskich mog\u0105 by\u0107 wykonywane w dowolnym czasie). Mimo wszystko s\u0105 to wci\u0105\u017c wysokie poziomy i wraz ze spadkiem na SP500 powinni\u015bmy ujrze\u0107 wi\u0119ksze „czyszczenie” pozycji d\u0142ugich w opcjach sprzeda\u017cy. Gdzie zatem oczekiwa\u0107 potencjalnego zasi\u0119gu dla korekty?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Z punktu widzenia analizy technicznej mamy \u0142adn\u0105 r\u00f3wno\u015b\u0107 korekt w trendzie wzrostowym mierzonym od pocz\u0105tku 2016 roku. Nawet w okresie Brexitu, czy wybor\u00f3w prezydenckich zmienno\u015b\u0107 zamyka\u0142a si\u0119 w zasi\u0119gu pierwszej korekty ze stycznia. Zatem z tego punktu widzenia potencja\u0142 do spadk\u00f3w si\u0119ga okolic 2270 punkt\u00f3w.<\/p>\n

\n

Poza tym warto zauwa\u017cy\u0107, \u017ce na tym poziomie mamy r\u00f3wnie\u017c pierwsze zniesienie Fibonacciego wspomnianej wy\u017cej ruchy wzrostowego. Reasumuj\u0105c, zar\u00f3wno wzgl\u0119dy fundamentalne jak i techniczne daj\u0105 przestrze\u0144 do jeszcze g\u0142\u0119bszej przeceny na SP500. Z drugiej strony \u0142agodne nastawienie FED w kwestii szybszego tempa zacie\u015bniania polityki monetarnej powinno dalej wspiera\u0107 wyceny bie\u017c\u0105ce akcji na Wall Street, na co wskazywa\u0142em w zesz\u0142otygodniowym wpisie<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Just in time – tak kr\u00f3tko mo\u017cna podsumowa\u0107 moj\u0105 wczorajsz\u0105 wypowied\u017a w programie „Rynki na \u017bywo”, kt\u00f3ra dotyczy\u0142a mi\u0119dzy innymi rosn\u0105cego ryzyka wyst\u0105pienia tzw. tail risk na SP500. Jak si\u0119 okaza\u0142o d\u0142ugo czeka\u0107 nie musieli\u015bmy. Cho\u0107 pe\u0142nego tail risk nie ujrzeli\u015bmy (tj. nie odnotowali\u015bmy dziennej stopy zwrotu odbiegaj\u0105cej powy\u017cej dw\u00f3ch odchyle\u0144 standardowych) to przecena rz\u0119du […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12743,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archiwum-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nJak g\u0142\u0119boka mo\u017ce by\u0107 korekta na SP500? - InsiderFX | Finanse bez stresu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Just in time - tak kr\u00f3tko mo\u017cna podsumowa\u0107 moj\u0105 wczorajsz\u0105 wypowied\u017a w programie "Rynki na \u017bywo", kt\u00f3ra dotyczy\u0142a mi\u0119dzy innymi rosn\u0105cego ryzyka\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/gleboka-moze-byc-korekta-sp500\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jak g\u0142\u0119boka mo\u017ce by\u0107 korekta na SP500? 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