{"id":11402,"date":"2016-09-08T10:47:15","date_gmt":"2016-09-08T08:47:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/?p=11402"},"modified":"2026-03-22T20:14:41","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T19:14:41","slug":"goldman-sachs-przestaje-wierzyc-podwyzki-stop-usa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insiderfx.pl\/en\/goldman-sachs-przestaje-wierzyc-podwyzki-stop-usa\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs przestaje wierzy\u0107 w podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p w USA"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kr\u00f3tko po tym, jak otrzymali\u015bmy bardzo s\u0142aby odczyt us\u0142ugowego indeksu ISM z gospodarki USA, kt\u00f3ry pokaza\u0142 gwa\u0142towne t\u0105pni\u0119cie stratedzy Goldman Sachs zdecydowali si\u0119 szybko zrewidowa\u0107 swoje oczekiwania. Jest to o tyle zaskakuj\u0105ce, \u017ce jeszcze w pi\u0105tek, po mieszanym raporcie z rynku pracy g\u0142\u00f3wny ekonomista GS Hatzius oznajmia\u0142, \u017ce bank zwi\u0119kszy\u0142 swoje prawdopodobie\u0144stwo podwy\u017cki we wrze\u015bniu z 40% do 55%.<\/p>\n

Jednocze\u015bnie Goldman zwi\u0119kszy\u0142 swoje subiektywne prawdopodobie\u0144stwo ruchu w grudniu z 25% do 30%. Z drugiej strony skumulowane oczekiwania banku je\u015bli chodzi o wykonanie przez FED chocia\u017cby jednej podwy\u017cki w tym roku zosta\u0142y przesuni\u0119te w d\u00f3\u0142 z 80% do 70%. Jak powiedzia\u0142 Hatzius:<\/p>\n

„wraz z lekko s\u0142abszymi danymi oraz z up\u0142ywaj\u0105cym czasem podwy\u017cka st\u00f3p w tym roku wygl\u0105da obecnie troch\u0119 mniej pewnie”.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Ponadto Goldman Sachs argumentowa\u0142 swoj\u0105 decyzj\u0119 ostatnim wyst\u0105pieniem cz\u0142onka Rezerwy Federalnej Johna Williamsa, kt\u00f3ry cho\u0107 popar\u0142 podwy\u017cszanie kosztu pieni\u0105dza szybciej ni\u017c p\u00f3\u017aniej jednocze\u015bnie nie da\u0142 nam \u017cadnych wskaz\u00f3wek, czy Komitet b\u0119dzie gotowy do dzia\u0142ania w tym miesi\u0105cu. Brak wyra\u017anego poradnictwa ze strony Williamsa (oraz od innych cz\u0142onk\u00f3w FED) sugeruje, \u017ce oficjele FED nie s\u0105 specjalnie zmartwieni niskimi szansami, jakie daje rynek co do ruchu st\u00f3p za kilka dni.<\/p>\n

Bank podkre\u015bla r\u00f3wnie\u017c, \u017ce historycznie FED praktycznie nigdy nie podnosi\u0142 st\u00f3p przy tak niskim prawdopodobie\u0144stwie (ryzyko du\u017cego wp\u0142ywu na rynek). Za\u015b minimalny jego poziom wynosi\u0142 oko\u0142o 70% (z wyj\u0105tkiem lutego 1994). Tym samym bank przyznaje, \u017ce oczekiwa\u0142 wyra\u017aniejszych komunikat\u00f3w ze strony cz\u0142onk\u00f3w FED po sierpniowym raporcie z rynku pracy. Ich brak jest oznak\u0105 niech\u0119ci do dzia\u0142ania.<\/p>\n

\"Szanse<\/a>
Szanse na podwy\u017ck\u0119 st\u00f3p we wrze\u015bniu i grudniu, \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: zerohedge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Pr\u00f3cz tego Goldman wskazywa\u0142 na fatalny odczyt us\u0142ugowego indeksu ISM, kt\u00f3ry t\u0105pn\u0105\u0142 z 55,5 do 51,4 w sierpniu. Cho\u0107 jest to tylko jednorazowy odczyt to zaskoczenie jest bardzo du\u017ce, wi\u0119c oficjele FED mogli czu\u0107 mniejsze przekonanie w kwestii wrze\u015bniowej podwy\u017cki. W obliczu tych okoliczno\u015bci jednorazowy bardzo s\u0142aby odczyt ma wielk\u0105 wag\u0119.<\/p>\n

Jak wida\u0107 na grafice powy\u017cej rynek obecnie nie daje wielkich szans na ruch 21 wrze\u015bnia. Niemniej jednak warto zauwa\u017cy\u0107, \u017ce wci\u0105\u017c niepewny jest czy FED w og\u00f3le podniesie stopy w tym roku, daj\u0105c nieco ponad 50%-owe prawdopodobie\u0144stwo na taki scenariusz.<\/p>\n

Osobi\u015bcie uwa\u017cam, \u017ce po serii fatalnych odczyt\u00f3w indeks\u00f3w ISM nie ma najmniejszych szans na podwy\u017ck\u0119 st\u00f3p we wrze\u015bniu.<\/strong> O ile rynek pracy nie by\u0142 z\u0142y, z \u0142y\u017ck\u0105 dziegciu by\u0142y jedynie lekko spadaj\u0105ce p\u0142ace, o tyle zachwianie koniunktury zar\u00f3wno w us\u0142ugach jak i przemy\u015ble daje do my\u015blenia, nawet je\u015bli s\u0105 to tylko jednorazowe „wyskoki”. Jakie reperkusje dla dolara?<\/p>\n

Wed\u0142ug mnie przestrze\u0144 do dalszej deprecjacji USD jest zdecydowanie ograniczona, bior\u0105c pod uwag\u0119 chocia\u017cby ju\u017c do\u015b\u0107 niskie prawdopodobie\u0144stwo podwy\u017cki we wrze\u015bniu. Parami, kt\u00f3re s\u0105 najbardziej godne uwagi pod k\u0105tem kupowania USD s\u0105 w mojej ocenie AUDUSD i GBPUSD.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kr\u00f3tko po tym, jak otrzymali\u015bmy bardzo s\u0142aby odczyt us\u0142ugowego indeksu ISM z gospodarki USA, kt\u00f3ry pokaza\u0142 gwa\u0142towne t\u0105pni\u0119cie stratedzy Goldman Sachs zdecydowali si\u0119 szybko zrewidowa\u0107 swoje oczekiwania. Jest to o tyle zaskakuj\u0105ce, \u017ce jeszcze w pi\u0105tek, po mieszanym raporcie z rynku pracy g\u0142\u00f3wny ekonomista GS Hatzius oznajmia\u0142, \u017ce bank zwi\u0119kszy\u0142 swoje prawdopodobie\u0144stwo podwy\u017cki we wrze\u015bniu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11404,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-archiwum-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nGoldman Sachs przestaje wierzy\u0107 w podwy\u017cki st\u00f3p w USA - InsiderFX | Finanse bez stresu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Kr\u00f3tko po tym, jak otrzymali\u015bmy bardzo s\u0142aby odczyt us\u0142ugowego indeksu ISM z gospodarki USA, kt\u00f3ry pokaza\u0142 gwa\u0142towne 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